December 2025 Market Recap: What a Quieter Month Revealed Heading Into 2026

December 2025 Market Recap: What a Quieter Month Revealed Heading Into 2026

December often gets written off as a “slow” month in real estate — and on the surface, that was true. Fewer showings, fewer new listings, and a general holiday pause.

But when you look a little closer, December 2025 told a more important story about where the Phoenix-area housing market is heading as we move into 2026.

Inventory Pulled Back — More Than Just Seasonal

Inventory didn’t simply level off in December. It pulled back sharply.

Active listings dropped more than 10% month-over-month and are now nearly 16% lower than they were just six months ago. While some of that decline is seasonal, the magnitude matters. Sellers aren’t rushing to list — many are choosing to wait, which is quietly tightening supply as we head into the new year.

This isn’t a flood of homes coming off the market due to distress. It’s restraint.

Buyers Didn’t Disappear — They Got Intentional

Buyer activity cooled compared to November, which is typical during the holidays. Under-contract activity dipped month-to-month, but when you zoom out, buyer demand is still stronger than it was this time last year.

The takeaway? Buyers are still very much present — they’re just more selective. Casual browsing slowed. Serious buyers stayed engaged.

Closings Told a Different Story

One of the most telling signals in December showed up in closings.

Sold homes jumped nearly 16% from November and posted a strong year-over-year increase. That tells us that deals written earlier in the fall did close — and that confidence hasn’t cracked. Financing is still working, pricing is still aligning, and transactions are moving forward.

New Listings Stayed Flat — And That Matters

December didn’t bring a late-year rush of new listings. New inventory stayed essentially flat, which matters more than it sounds.

With fewer fresh homes entering the market and overall inventory still declining, the data points toward seller restraint rather than pressure. That dynamic often shapes how the early months of the new year feel.

Pricing Remains Steady

Pricing behavior remains rational.

Homes that are priced well and presented thoughtfully are still selling close to list price. Negotiation exists — especially at higher price points — but there’s no sign of widespread discounting or forced selling. This is a market responding calmly to supply and demand, not reacting emotionally.

A Moment of Perspective

December didn’t signal a slowdown — it signaled discipline.

Less inventory.
Fewer new listings.
Buyers still closing.

This is what a balanced market looks like when it catches its breath before the next cycle begins.

What This Means Going Into 2026

For sellers, preparation matters more than ever. As inventory tightens, homes that enter the market polished, priced correctly, and positioned intentionally are the ones gaining traction.

For buyers, this quieter window can offer opportunity. Less competition than spring, more room for thoughtful negotiation, and a chance to act before tightening supply begins to shift momentum again.

December may have closed the year calmly — but it quietly set the stage for what’s next.

If You Enjoyed This Insight…

If you’re even beginning to think about buying or selling — now or sometime in 2026 — understanding how this market actually behaves is a powerful first step. This isn’t a market that rewards rushing or reacting. It rewards clarity, preparation, and thoughtful positioning.

If you’d like to talk through what that could look like for your situation — whether you’re planning a move or just trying to stay ready — I’m always happy to help.

I also share deeper homeowner and market insights every Wednesday morning in my weekly newsletter, from lifestyle stories to practical real estate guidance rooted in what’s really happening here in the Valley.

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