My Market Prediction for 2026

My Market Prediction for 2026

Over the past year, I’ve found myself slowing down more, both personally and professionally. Watching my son step into preschool has been a reminder of how much clarity comes from simply paying attention. Kids notice everything. They ask questions. They observe patterns long before they draw conclusions.

That same mindset has shaped how I’ve been watching the real estate market.

I’ve been in real estate for several years, but writing a weekly market update over the last year has pushed me to dig into the data more consistently than ever before. Not just tracking what’s happening month to month, but stepping back to see how trends form, shift, and repeat over time.

With that lens, here’s my grounded take on what 2026 is shaping up to look like.

It starts with inventory

One of the most meaningful shifts I’m seeing right now has less to do with buyers disappearing and more to do with sellers opting out.

Over the last month, active inventory dropped by more than 10 percent. On its own, that might sound like a typical seasonal slowdown, and to some extent, December usually does bring fewer new listings. What makes this moment different is the context.

Inventory isn’t just down month over month. It’s also roughly 16 percent lower than it was six months ago. In a more typical market cycle, inventory tends to build through the summer and fall, dip briefly during the holidays, and then rebound in the new year. This time, that buildup never really happened.

For perspective, last winter looked different. In late 2024, inventory dipped during the holidays but rebounded quickly in the early months of 2025 as sellers returned to the market. That pause-and-bounce pattern is normal. What stands out now is that inventory hasn’t rebuilt the same way. Instead of a temporary slowdown, more homeowners are choosing not to list at all unless a move truly makes sense for them.

That’s a behavioral shift, not just a seasonal one.

A more selective market, not a frantic one

Many homeowners are sitting on low interest rates and have no urgency to move. At the same time, the buyers who are active right now tend to be patient, qualified, and intentional. There’s less emotional decision-making and more discernment on both sides.

That combination matters.

Even though there may be plenty of homes available overall, fewer are well positioned, well priced, and backed by motivated sellers. In this kind of environment, how a home is prepared, presented, and priced often matters more than aggressive strategies or big adjustments.

This is not a market driven by panic or pressure. It’s a market shaped by choice.

What this likely means for 2026

If these patterns continue, even at a measured pace, 2026 becomes less about perfectly timing the market and more about positioning within it.

Well-prepared homes are likely to stand out faster. Average or poorly positioned homes may sit longer. Buyers waiting for a dramatic increase in inventory may find that options remain more limited than expected. Sellers who don’t need to sell will continue to have more control over how and when they move.

This isn’t dramatic. It’s structural.

And it’s why I’m seeing the conversation slowly shift from “Should I wait?” to “How do I stay ready?”

A calmer way forward

Seasonal slowdowns will always happen. Headlines will always change. But longer-term patterns tend to reveal themselves quietly over time.

Right now, the market feels calmer and more intentional than reactive. Less noise. More thoughtful decisions. In environments like this, preparation almost always wins over prediction.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply trying to understand where you stand, the most valuable step right now isn’t rushing. It’s getting clarity.

Sometimes one conversation is all it takes to feel grounded again.

If You Enjoyed This Insight…

If you’re even beginning to think about buying or selling—now or sometime in 2026—understanding how this market actually behaves is a powerful first step. This isn’t a market that rewards rushing or reacting. It rewards clarity, preparation, and thoughtful positioning.

If you’d like to talk through what that could look like for your situation—whether you’re planning a move or just trying to stay ready—I’m always happy to help.

I also share deeper homeowner and market insights every Wednesday morning in my weekly newsletter, from lifestyle stories to practical real estate guidance rooted in what’s really happening here in the Valley.

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