Why Sold Listings Went Negative for the First Time This Year

Why Sold Listings Went Negative Year-Over-Year in July — and What It Actually Means

All year long closings in the Phoenix metro have come in above where they were the prior year. March, April, May, June — every single month, year-over-year sold listings were positive.

July changed that.

Sold listings came in down 3.43% compared to July 2025. It's the first time that number has flipped negative all year and it's worth understanding what's actually behind it.

This Is Summer Doing What Summer Does

July is historically the slowest month for real estate in the Valley. Families are traveling, the heat keeps people indoors, and buyer activity pulls back every single year at this point in the calendar. That's not a 2026 story — it's a Phoenix story.

What makes July's number look more dramatic than it might otherwise is the spring this market just came off. March was the strongest sales month since May 2023. April matched it almost exactly. That kind of spring makes the summer comparison harder to clear — and July didn't clear it.

That context matters. The July number isn't a signal that the market is weakening. It's a reflection of what was written in May and June, when contracts were already pulling back. Closings lag contracts by four to six weeks. When buyer activity slows in May, you see it in July closings.

The Numbers Behind the Slowdown

Contracts have been pulling back for three straight months — down 22.53% over that stretch. Buyers who slowed down in May haven't fully come back yet. Days on market held at 83 for the second straight month. The improvement we tracked from 91 days in January all the way down to 80 in the spring has stalled.

None of that is surprising in July. All of it is worth watching as we head into fall.

The Inventory Picture Is Shifting

One thing that is worth paying attention to is the inventory gap. Earlier this summer active listings were running nearly 8% below where they were the prior year — a meaningful supply advantage for sellers. In July that gap narrowed to 2.44% year-over-year. Still below last year but closing faster than expected.

New listings have also pulled back significantly — down 22.67% over the past three months. Sellers stepping back is the only thing keeping inventory from building more meaningfully right now. If that changes heading into fall, the supply picture could shift quickly.

What This Means for Sellers

The supply advantage is narrowing but it hasn't disappeared. Inventory is still below last year's levels and well-priced homes still have an audience even in the slowest month of the year. Positioning matters more right now than it did in the spring — because buyers have more room to be selective.

What This Means for Buyers

This is the most room buyers have had to be thoughtful all year. Three months into the summer slowdown, motivated sellers exist and competition is meaningfully lower than it was in March and April. Being prepared and knowing what you're looking for puts you in a strong position when the fall market picks back up.

What to Watch Next

The more meaningful read on this market comes in September and October. That's when buyers historically return to the Valley and when the data will tell us whether the foundation built during this year's strong spring is holding. July is a data point — fall is the story.

If you're trying to figure out what this market means for your specific situation, that's always a local conversation. The data gives us direction. Your strategy is always personal.

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